Thursday, April 2, 2009

Franco-German alliance growls


It's stuttered and it's stalled over the last few years, but in London the European engine roared back into life. I am talking about the Franco-German motor, which is said to be the engine of the European Union.
The president of France and chancellor of Germany gave an extraordinarily hard-headed joint news conference, delivering the message that the G20 must enforce a profound change to the world's economic system and do it now. Even the often diffident Mrs Merkel sounded passionate, as well as very firm. Given the pair don't like each other, and have often differed on policy, what is this all about?
Both have headaches at home and want to be seen back at home as central players in this grand meeting. Mr Sarkozy is deeply unpopular: a recent opinion poll indicated 59% of the French think he has mishandled the crisis. Mrs Merkel has an election this year, and must make herself stand out from her Social Democrat partners in government.
So they are delivering a message to London and Washington that will be popular in France and Germany. There is a widespread feeling that this crisis was created by a financial system that gave priority to vast profits and the acceptance of immense borrowing of money as a way of life. And that it was clearly marked "made in the USA". But this intercontinental financial missile has devastated their towns and cities and they want economic arms talks right now.
It is just a fact that the Germans and French do not rely on credit in the way we Anglo-Saxons do. Time and time again in Germany I have met bosses of middle-sized businesses who tell me they invest most of their profit, rather than go to the banks. Many people in both countries are in no doubt that in America and the UK fecklessness was not just for the filthy rich, but had become a way of life for all of us.
Depending on your level of cynicism Sarkozy and Merkel are either playing to the gallery or faithfully reflecting a public mood in their nations. They also believe that to do business with even a spanking new America you have to be tough. As one French politician said to me recently (I paraphrase): "Why perform the same role as you British? You say you want to be close to them to influence their policy, and we know that doesn't work".
But I imagine Mrs Merkel will be reflecting long and hard on one part of President Obama's meaty news conference. He said that the world could no longer rely on voracious consumption from America. So countries that lived by exports alone had to think again. The German chancellor has already made it clear that she couldn't transfigure Germany's export-led economy, even if she wanted to do so. Even if there was a successful attempt to stimulate the cautious German consumer into buying more it couldn't take up even a small part of the slack anyhow. I guess that means Germans will have to get used to being that much poorer in the future, or hope new markets blossom.
Merkel and Sarkozy won the argument in Europe against a grand new plan to pump money into the world economy at the last EU summit, when Gordon Brown didn't stand up to them. It seems, and I could yet be proved wrong, that the Americans accept that victory days ago. Whether the newly dynamic duo will win the battle for new rules and regulations we will know by tonight. It will probably take years to know whether their argument is bang on the nail or hopelessly out of touch with economic reality.

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